In this paper, we exploit the heterogeneity in the forecasts obtained by estimating different factor models to measure forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some benchmark model, and then in constructing an...

The constitutional reforms of 2001 and 2003 empowered the Italian regions to enact legislation aimed at removing barriers to effective gender equality. The laws they have adopted in this field are often fragmented � only in a few cases do they form a consistent, comprehensive framework...

In this paper we estimate the short-run elasticity of substitution between male and female workers, using data on employment and wages from Italian provinces from 1993-2006. We adopt a production function approach similar to that of Card and Lemieux (2001a) and Acemoglu, Autor and Lyle (2004)....

We analyse the results of a survey conducted by the Bank of Italy in the spring of 2012 on Italian science and technology parks. First we describe the main features of science parks in Italy. Then we investigate whether they have been effective in improving the economic performance and...

Spatial econometric models are now an established tool for measuring spillover effects between geographical entities. Unfortunately, however, when entities share common borders but are subject to different institutional frameworks, unless this is taken into account the conclusions may be...

Since 2013 the inflation rate in the euro area has fallen steadily, reaching all-time lows at the end of 2014. Market-based measures of inflation expectations (such as inflation swaps) have also declined to extremely low levels, which suggests increasing concern about the credibility of the ECB...

This paper proposes a Bayesian regression model with time-varying coefficients (TVC) that makes it possible to estimate jointly the degree of instability and the time-path of regression coefficients. Thanks to its computational tractability, the model proves suitable to perform the first (to our...

This paper deals with the usefulness of several measures of financial spreads (the slope of the yield curve, the reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to...

A two-country model that incorporates many features proposed in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is developed in order to replicate the volatility of the real exchange rate and its disconnect with macroeconomic variables. The model is estimated using data for the euro area and the...

We assess the impact of oil shocks on euro-area macroeconomic variables by estimating a new-Keynesian small open economy model with Bayesian methods. Oil price is determined according to supply and demand conditions in the world oil market. We find that the impact of an increase in the price of...