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The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011277938
This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005486716
This paper analyses the business cycle properties of 183 time series relevant to the Italian economy, including real, monetary and international variables. We propose new monthly coincident and leading composite indicators for the Italian business cycle; the leading indicator anticipates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113618
Survey data attract considerable interest as timely and reliable series for assessing the state of the economy. We investigate the relationship between the manufacturing PMI and the Index of Industrial Production (IPI) for Italy, with a special focus on the effects of the latest crisis. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009350679
This paper estimates the effects of technology shocks in VAR models of the U.S., identified by imposing restrictions on … the sign of impulse responses. These restrictions are consistent with the implications of a popular class of DSGE models …. Contrary to most of the related VAR evidence, results are not sensitive to a number of specification assumptions, including …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113544
information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a VAR. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099680
We consider an economy in which the oil costs, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to fundamental domestic and external demand and supply shocks. We estimate the effects of these structural shocks on US monthly data for the 1973.1-2007.12 period using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005467314
This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects on the U.S. economy of news about oil supply by estimating a VAR … following a shock. Hence, differently from the VAR literature on oil shocks we do not need to rely on recursive identification …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113603
The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model … and with the Eurosystem projections; the same real time assumptions underlying the latter are used to condition the DSGE … overall more accurate than that of simple autoregressive models. The DSGE model shows a relatively better performance in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011171339
improve upon a standard rule in terms of macroeconomic stabilization in a DSGE with both a firms' balance-sheet channel and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099720