Showing 1 - 10 of 39
From a financial standpoint, the mechanics of the carry trade has been recently examined in Brunnermeier et al. (2009). They showed that shocks to interest rate differentials lead to carry trade activity and to significant reactions in the bilateral exchange rates vis-a-vis the US dollar that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009320179
This paper investigates the relationship between futures prices and financial investments in derivatives of the main agricultural commodities. We first provide a broad picture of how these markets function and how they have evolved, showing that traders who deal mostly in commodity index...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009645788
This paper analyzes the determinants of credit default swap spread changes for a large sample of US non-financial companies over the period between January 2002 and March 2009. In our analysis we use variables that the literature has found have an impact on CDS spreads and, in order to account...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008626020
Among the many controversial variables in finance, risk premia stand out for their lack of observability. Measuring premia as the difference between realized returns on risky and risk-free assets has not led to unanimous conclusions about their size, which greatly depends on the length of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113528
The jump-diffusion model introduced by Merton is used to price a cross- section of options at different dates. At any point in time, the parameters of the model are estimated by minimizing the sum of squared implied volatility errors, and their informational content is compared with the widely...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005609384
This paper explores the implications of systemic risk in Credit Structured Finance (CSF). Risk measurement issues loomed large during the 2007-08 financial crisis, as the massive, unprecedented number of downgrades of AAA senior bond tranches inflicted severe losses on banks, calling into...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008677911
We study the problem of extracting the state price densities from the market prices of listed options. Adapting a model of Madan and Milne to a multiple expiration setting, we present an estimation method for the risk-neutral probability at a moving horizon of fixed length. With the exception of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113632
This paper uses Garch models to estimate the objective and risk-neutral density functions of financial asset prices and, by comparing their shapes, recover detailed information on economic agents' attitudes toward risk. It differs from recent papers investigating analogous issues because it uses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113677
This paper evaluates the use of risk-neutral probability density functions implied in 3-month interest-rate futures options to assess market perceptions regarding future monetary policy moves options allow the information content implied in simpler derivatives to be extended by providing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005111560
This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures, particularly evident since the mid-1990s, which is negative on average and displays a non-trivial cyclical component (risk premium). We show that the forecast error on oil futures could have been explained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005609334