Between the first half of 2013 and the summer of 2014, survey data pointed to a gradual recovery of economic activity, while the hard data continued to show persistent weakness. After providing statistical evidence to support the hypothesis that, during the sovereign debt crisis, the...

This paper presents a general test of contagion in financial markets based on bivariate correlation analysis � a test that can be interpreted as an extension of the normal correlation theorem. Contagion is defined as a structural break in the data generating process of rates of return....

The volume collects the essays presented at the 15th Workshop on Public Finance organised by Banca d'Italia in Perugia from 4 to 6 April 2013. The workshop focused on the link between fiscal policy and macroeconomic imbalances and comprised four sessions. The first session concentrated on the...

We exploit a gravity model to study the main determinants of cross-border financial flows and to identify those flows that appear to be abnormally above the predicted value. Our data include all Italian cross-border bank transfers that took place between 2007 and 2010. We find that, other things...

The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even though market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic activity to be more...

We develop a model which accounts for the observed equity premium and average risk free rate, without implying counterfactually high risk aversion. The model also does well in accounting for business cycle phenomena.

Using unique matched bank-firm data on export, import and ordinary loans for a large sample of Italian manufacturing exporters for the years 2007-2010, this paper investigates the role of trade finance in a credit shock. We find that the credit shock faced by exporters in the aftermath of the...

The paper examines the view that the Asian currency and financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even though market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic activity to be more...