comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-�-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the … presents the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of … reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that parametric mapping surmounts the difficulties that are likely to …

Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow …-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB …

forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some … distribution as a measure of uncertainty. We illustrate our methodology by means of a forecasting exercise using a large database …

predictive power of the monetary aggregate M3 for inflation in recent years. This paper reassesses the information content of … monetary analysis for future inflation using dynamic factors extracted from a new and richer cross-section of data including … inflation forecasts turn out to be more accurate than those produced by traditional competitor models at the relevant policy …

based bridge models produce smaller forecast error than fixed composition bridges. In an application to the euro area they …

to forecast revisions. Third, we design a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise and examine point and density … to forecast GDP growth at short-term horizons in the euro area. We discuss three sets of empirical results. First, we use … the model to evaluate the impact of macroeconomic releases on point and density forecast accuracy and on the width of …

forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting …The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model …

This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures, particularly evident since the … forecast error on oil futures could have been explained in part by means of real-time US business cycle indicators, such as the …