comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-�-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the … presents the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of … reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that parametric mapping surmounts the difficulties that are likely to …

Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow …-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB …

forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some … distribution as a measure of uncertainty. We illustrate our methodology by means of a forecasting exercise using a large database …

predictive power of the monetary aggregate M3 for inflation in recent years. This paper reassesses the information content of … monetary analysis for future inflation using dynamic factors extracted from a new and richer cross-section of data including … inflation forecasts turn out to be more accurate than those produced by traditional competitor models at the relevant policy …

reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A … quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to assess the marginal forecasting power of financial spreads for real … economic activity and inflation. A benchmark BVAR is set up, containing real GDP, inflation and key indicators of monetary …

on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly … forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelï …

by inflation projections that diverged from the announced targets and by trying to identify other influences that played …-year inflation rates were explicitly announced by the Governor. The empirical analysis clearly indicates a role for model forecasts … of inflation in monetary policymaking. This conclusion is robust, as inflation forecasts are shown to possess explanatory …

The forecasting profession, especially when producing forecasts intended to support economic policy, does not currently … the forecast results may be viewed as arbitrary. At other times, it is the excessively mechanical nature of the … forecasting process which is criticised, on the grounds that it prevents a proper evaluation of any information concerning changes …