comparing the forecast accuracy of the suggested model vis-�-vis other benchmark models, both in the ARIMA and in the … presents the analytical forecasting properties of the random coefficient exponential smoothing model in the multiple source of … reduced form ARIMA parameters. In addition, it shows that parametric mapping surmounts the difficulties that are likely to …

Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to derive a set of core inflation indicators that, combining national with area-wide data, allow …-wide inflation once the information contained in area-wide data has been exploited, and whether it is useful, in order to track ECB …

forecast uncertainty. Our approach is simple and intuitive. It consists first in selecting all the models that outperform some … distribution as a measure of uncertainty. We illustrate our methodology by means of a forecasting exercise using a large database …

model linking individual investment realisations to investment intentions. The model generates a one-year-ahead forecast of …

reverse yield gap, the credit quality spread) for fore-casting real economic activity and inflation in the euro area. A … quarterly Bayesian vector autoregression model is used to assess the marginal forecasting power of financial spreads for real … economic activity and inflation. A benchmark BVAR is set up, containing real GDP, inflation and key indicators of monetary …

on the state of the Italian economy in the 1990s, taking as a benchmark the forecasting errors generated by the quarterly … forecasting errors in monetary and real variables, thereby taking into account links that may not be accounted for by the modelï …

predictive power of the monetary aggregate M3 for inflation in recent years. This paper reassesses the information content of … monetary analysis for future inflation using dynamic factors extracted from a new and richer cross-section of data including … inflation forecasts turn out to be more accurate than those produced by traditional competitor models at the relevant policy …

This paper documents the existence of a significant forecast error on crude oil futures, particularly evident since the … forecast error on oil futures could have been explained in part by means of real-time US business cycle indicators, such as the …