We explore the role of expectations in second generation currency crisis models, proving that sudden shifts in speculators' beliefs can trigger currency devaluations, even without any sizable worsening in the fundamentals. In our incomplete information game, mean-preserving changes in...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic consequences of the establishment of a monetary union in the presence of unionized labor markets. It is shown that the effects of the formation of a monetary union depend on several labor market festures, such as the degree of centralization of wage...

We review the impact of the global financial crisis, and its consequences for the sovereign sector of the euro area, on the international “rules of the game” for dealing with sovereign debt crises. These rules rest on two main pillars. The most important is the IMF’s lending framework...

The paper explores the view that the Asian currency and financial crises in 1997 and 1998 reflected structural and policy distortions in the countries of the region, even though market overreaction and herding caused the plunge of exchange rates, asset prices and economic activity to be more...

A two-country model that incorporates many features proposed in the New Open Economy Macroeconomics literature is developed in order to replicate the volatility of the real exchange rate and its disconnect with macroeconomic variables. The model is estimated using data for the euro area and the...

A Monetary Union is modeled as a technology that makes a surprise policy deviation impossible but requires voluntarily participating countries to follow the same monetary policy. Within a fully dynamic context, we identify conditions under which such arrangement may dominate a coordinated system...

We test whether and how the adoption of the euro, narrowly defined as the end of competitive devaluations, has affected member states� productive structures, distinguishing between within and across sector reallocation. We find evidence that the euro has been accompanied by a reallocation...

Since the adoption of flexible exchange rates, real exchange rates have been much more volatile than they were under Bretton Woods. However, the volatilities of most other macroeconomic variables have remained approximately unchanged. This poses a puzzle for standard international business cycle...

We assess the global macroeconomic implications of different strategies of official reserve management by developing a large scale new-Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model of the world economy, calibrated on the euro area, the United States, China, Japan and the rest of the world. An...

We review the impact of the global financial crisis, and its consequences for the sovereign sector of the euro area, on the international �rules of the game� for dealing with sovereign debt crises. These rules rest on two main pillars. The most important is the IMF�s lending...