En este documento estimamos la elasticidad de oferta laboral de Frisch en un mercado laboral con significativa movilidad laboral. Lo hacemos usando el estimador de efectos fijos de MaCurdy(1981) con corrección por sesgo de selección a-la-Heckman. La pendiente de oferta laboral queda...

This paper identifies the output gap using the theoretical definition of the gap within a Phillips curve. The results show that the output gap is large and persistent. Furthermore, the output gap is not correlated with the stochastic trend which is similar to the asumption used in the unobserved...

In everyday macroeconomic analysis, businessmen and policymakers monitor many variables in order to assess the current situation of a country’s business cycle. However, making this assessment is extremely difficult, especially on the verge of recessions: does a drop in one or more of these...

We use the results of business tendency surveys (BTS) to forecast private investment growth in Peru, exploring the possible non-linear link between the BTS and private investment for forecasting purposes. We find that business confidence indices extracted from BTS, in particular the one...

Se estudia la duración del desempleo en una economía con alta informalidad, alto autoempleo e inactividad laboral. La duración promedio del desempleo en una economía con estas características (Perú) es aproximadamente tres meses, valor inferior a lo estimado para economías desarrolladas....

Using di¤erent unit root statistics and the approach of Tomljanovich and Vogelsang (2002), we test for the existence of stochastic and beta-convergence in the unemployment rates of a set of thirteen European countries. Using quarterly data for the period 1984:1-2005:4, we observe that there has...

En este documento se analiza si la información proporcionada por Google Trends puede reflejar el comportamiento de variables macroeconómicas de Perú, como el Índice de Empleo de Lima para Empresas de 100 y más Trabajadores (IE100). Utilizando esta fuente de información se construyó un...

We study the effects of the minimum wage in over employment and income by considering a monthly database that captures seven minimum wage changes registered between 2002 and 2011. We estimate that about 1 million workers have an income by main occupation in the neighbourhood of the minimum wage....

This paper studies the properties of an economy subject to random liquidity shocks. As in Kiyotaki and Moore [2008], liquidity shocks affect the ease with which equity can be used as to finance the down-payment for new investment projects. We obtain a liquidity frontier which separates the...

One of the key elements for inflation targeting regime is the right identification of inflationary or disinflationary pressures through the output gap. In this paper we provide an estimation of the Peruvian output gap using a multivariate unobserved component (MUC) model, relying on an explicit...