This paper investigates the role of monetary policy in the collapse in the long-term real interest rates in the decade before the onset of the financial crisis using a sample of five advanced economies (United States, United Kingdom, the euro area, Sweden and Canada). The results from an...

We construct a model to analyse the two types of tender procedures used by the European Central Bank in its open market operations. We assume that the ECB minimizes the expected value of a loss function that depends on the quadratic difference between the interbank rate and a target interest...

Monetary policy is conducted in an environment of uncertainty. This paper sets up a model where the central bank uses real-time data from the bond market together with standard macroeconomic indicators to estimate the current state of the economy more efficiently, while taking into account that...

In earlier work (Fuhrer 1997a), I document what I view as the failure of standard models of representative consumer and firm behaviour to replicate the dynamics that we observe in the aggregate data. In essence, these models fail because they imply that both inflation and real variables must...

The 2007-9 .financial crisis began with increased uncertainty over funding conditions in money markets. We show that funding uncertainty can explain diverse elements of commercial banks behaviour during the crisis, including:(i) reductions in lending volumes, balance sheets, and...

Historical experience shows that disruptions in credit markets can have a material impact on activity and inflation. However, it is hard to measure such effects owing to the difficulty in isolating credit supply shocks. This paper employs survey data to identify the impact of credit supply...

This paper presents a simple model of risk-averse banks that face uncertainty over funding conditions in the money market. It shows that increased funding uncertainty: (i) creates risk-based loan-deposit synergies, (ii) often causes banks' lending volumes and their profitability to decline,...

This paper employs stochastic simulations of the New Area-Wide Model - microfounded open-economy model developed at the ECB - to investigate the consequences of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates for the evolution of risks to price stability in the euro area during the recent...

Under a conventional policy rule, a central bank adjusts its policy rate linearly according to the gap between inflation and its target, and the gap between output and its potential. Under the opportunistic approach to disinflation a central bank controls inflation aggressively when inflation is...

Since 1990, a number of countries have adopted inflation targeting as their declared monetary strategy. Interpretations of the significance of this movement, however, have differed widely. To some, inflation targeting mandates the single-minded, rule-like pursuit of price stability without...