Showing 1 - 8 of 8
Die Einführung einer gemeinsamen Geldpolitik in elf europäischen Ländern erhöhte die Bedeutung von konjunkturellen Frühindikatoren für dieses Gebiet. Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963607
Ifo business climate and other Ifo indicators will be investigated to assess its properties. Properties of Ifo indicators either following the old institutional classification or the newer possibility of use classification will be checked against long-term time series according the new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963731
In diesem Artikel wird ein Datensatz benutzt, mit dem auch in einer begleitenden Untersuchung die Frühindikatoreigenschaften verschiedener Reihen für den deutschen Konjunkturzyklus getestet wurden. Um die Fähigkeit, Rezessionen zu prognostizieren, zu testen, wird der von Estrella/Mishkin...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963873
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004963987
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068660
The paper analyses the reasons for departures from strong rationality of German business cycle forecasts based on annual observations from 1963 to 2004. We rely on forecasts from the joint forecast of the so-called "six leading" forecasting institutions in Germany. We test for a non-linear...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005068945
Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069093
Based on a panel of German professional forecasts for 1970 to 2002 we find that growth and inflation forecasts are unbiased and weakly, but not strongly efficient. Besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality are found among...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005069095