This paper analyses the long-run growth rates of advanced economies, based on demographic factors. To this end, growth is broken down into two components: growth in productivity (GDP per working-age person) and the projected rate of growth of the working-age population. Productivity is assumed...

This paper develops a formal framework based on multivariate spectral techniques for assessing the performance of multivariate dynamic models whose solution is approximated through simulation. The approach is especially suitable for models that focus on a particular frequency range , such as...

In this paper we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy allowing for perfect capital mobility. The model incorporates price rigidities in monopolistically competitive goods and labor markets and real rigidities in the form of capital adjustment costs....

Following the increase in private-sector indebtedness before the 2008 Great Recession, balance sheet adjustment by the most indebted agents will be a necessary condition for achieving balanced growth. This paper analyses the deleveraging of the non-financial private sector in four countries that...

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts...

This paper aims at analysing the impact of household borrowing on consumption. These variables are modelled jointly in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where labour income, wealth variables and nominal interest rates are also included. The main estimation result is that deviations of...

El Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España (MTBE) constituye una herramienta fundamental para la elaboración de proyecciones a medio plazo de la economía española y para la cuantificación de los posibles efectos de distintas medidas de política económica o de perturbaciones de diversa...