In this paper we address the issue of the efficient estimation of the cointegrating vector in linear regression models with variables that follow general (higher order and fractionally) integrated processes.

Modern DSGE models are microfounded and have deep parameters that should be invariant to changes in economic policy, so in principle they are not subject to the Lucas critique. But the literature has already established that misspecification issues also cause parameter instability after policy...

The kind of prior typically employed in Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) analysis has aroused widespread suspicion about the ability of these models to capture long-run patterns. This paper specifies a bivariate cointegrated stochastic process and conducts a Monte Carlo experiment to assess...

This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.

We investigate heterogeneity and spillovers in macro-financial linkages across developed economies, with a particular emphasis on the most recent recession. A panel Bayesian VAR model including real and financial variables identifies a statistically significant common component, which proves to...

This paper considers panel growth regressions in the presence of model uncertainty and reverse causality concerns. For this purpose, my econometric framework combines Bayesian Model Averaging with a suitable likelihood function for dynamic panel models with weakly exogenous regressors and fixed...

Total Factor Productivity (TFP) accounts for a sizeable proportion of the income and growth differences across countries. Two challenges remain to researchers aiming to explain these differences: on the one hand, TFP growth is hard to measure; on the other hand, model uncertainty hampers...

Model uncertainty hampers consensus on the key determinants of economic growth. Some recent cross-country cross-sectional analyses have employed Bayesian Model Averaging to tackle the issue of model uncertainty. This paper extends that approach to panel data models with country-specific fixed...

This paper discusses likelihood-based estimation of linear panel data models with general predetermined variables and individual-specific effects. The resulting (pseudo) maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically equivalent to standard GMM but tends to have smaller finite-sample biases as...

This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU). For that purpose we estimate the Banco de...