Showing 1 - 10 of 33
This paper has been prepared to mark the tenth anniversary of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). It seeks to give an overview of the Spanish economy’s experience in this new institutional setting. It should be viewed as the result of a joint effort by a sizeable group of researchers from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022302
The fallout from the 2008 financial crisis has been particularly acute in the euro area Member States of the south-western rim and in the new EU Member States, due to their previously accumulated macroeconomic and financial imbalances. The perception that the euro environment provided a solid...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010678679
This paper reviews the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on two distinct emerging market regions: Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) and Latin America. Similar to other emerging economies, both regions were initially surprisingly resilient as the crisis gathered...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008587080
The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has raised interest in early warning indicators, aimed at signalling the build-up of fiscal stress in advance and helping prevent crises by means of a timely counteraction of fiscal and macroeconomic policies. This paper presents possible improvements...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862284
Maravall and del Río (2001), analized the time aggregation properties of the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter, which decomposes a time series into trend and cycle, for the case of annual, quarterly, and monthly data, and showed that aggregation of the disaggregate component cannot be obtained as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022260
Since the Latin American debt crisis of the early 80s, country risk analysis has accounted for a significant part of the work of research and risk management departments of banks, insurance companies, rating agencies, financial market regulators, and multinational companies. Country risk is a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022307
The Chinese banking system, characterized by massive government intervention, poor asset quality and low capitalization, has started a reform process based on three main pillars: (i) bank restructuring, through the cleaning-up of non-performing loans and public capital injections, particularly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004999271
The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010887040
We analyse the likely effects of changes in the monetary and financial regimes of EMU countries on the dynamics of output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced-form models. Data for both the pre-EMU and the EMU regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022237
This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022249