New EU members share two very marked features which have conflicting implications for the evolution of their real exchange rates in the long run: accelerated growth and systematic current account imbalances, which would anticipate, respectively an appreciation and a depreciation of their...

Inflation-linked bond markets have experienced significant growth in recent years. This growth is somewhat surprising, for inflation-linked bonds cannot be considered a financial innovation and their development has taken place in a period of historically low global inflation and inflation...

The objective of this paper is to examine the predictability of the monetary policy decisions of the Governing Council of the ECB and the transmission of the unexpected component of the monetary policy decisions to the yield curve. We find, using new methodologies, that markets do not fully...

Cross-border bank flows are experiencing a protracted contraction after the global financial crisis, in stark contrast with the recovery of other capital flows. The process can be driven by ongoing shifts in global banks international funding patters. Banks net issuances in international markets...

The paper analyses whether, and to what extent, emerging market economies (EMEs) have systemic importance for global financial markets, above and beyond their influence during crises episodes. Using a novel database of exogenous economic and political shocks for 14 EMEs, we find that EME shocks...

This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account to evaluate the fluctuations in current account balances experienced by Euro area countries over the last three decades. In the model current account balances are used to smooth consumption and they are driven by expectations about...

This paper studies the implications of cross-country housing market heterogeneity for a monetary union, also comparing the results with a flexible exchange rate and independent monetary policy setting. I develop a two-country new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral...

This paper develops the "identified VAR" models of France and Spain with German monetary variables to identify monetary policy shocks during the period when the exchange rate is controlled mostly by the ERM. Different identifying assumptions on the contemporaneous policy interactions are...

We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions. First, borrowing is subject to collateral constraints. Second, credit flows are intermediated by monopolistically competitive banks, thus giving rise to endogenous lending spreads. We show that, up to a second...

After almost six years with official interest rates at close to zero and with numerous unconventional measures still in place, 2014 is witnessing the beginning of the process of monetary normalisation in those economies, such as the United States and the United Kingdom, in which the recovery...