This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.

This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a...

This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain's macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU). For that purpose we estimate the Banco de...

Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest financial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we analyze whether such claims...

Modern DSGE models are microfounded and have deep parameters that should be invariant to changes in economic policy, so in principle they are not subject to the Lucas critique. But the literature has already established that misspecification issues also cause parameter instability after policy...

The kind of prior typically employed in Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) analysis has aroused widespread suspicion about the ability of these models to capture long-run patterns. This paper specifies a bivariate cointegrated stochastic process and conducts a Monte Carlo experiment to assess...