In this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with QGARCH disturbances. This model distinguishes whether the long-run or short-run components are heteroscedastic. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with these components may...

The recent economic crisis has altered the dynamics of economic series and, as a consequence, introduced uncertainty in seasonal adjustment of recent years. This problem was discussed in recent workshops at the European Central Bank and at Eurostat in the context of adjustment of the Euro Area...

We show that the distribution of any portfolio whose components jointly follow a location-scale mixture of normals can be characterised solely by its mean, variance and skewness. Under this distributional assumption, we derive the mean-variance-skewness frontier in closed form, and show that it...

We derive Lagrange Multiplier and Likelihood Ratio specifi cation tests for the null hypotheses of multivariate normal and Student t innovations using the Generalised Hyperbolic distribution as our alternative hypothesis. We decompose the corresponding Lagrange Multiplier-type tests into...

During the last years, a number of countries have adopted formal inflation targeting (IT) monetary policy frameworks in a context of global inflation moderation. This paper studies inflation dynamics in eight Latin American countries, some of which have adopted formal targets. We analyze...

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. T o the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of tw o...

Realized volatilities, when observed over time, share the following stylised facts: comovements, clustering, long-memory, dynamic volatility, skewness and heavy-tails. We propose a dynamic factor model that captures these stylised facts and that can be applied to vast panels of volatilities as...

We introduce TailCoR, a new measure for tail correlation that is a function of linear and non-linear correlations, the latter characterized by the tail index. TailCoR can be exploited in a number of financial applications, such as portfolio selection where the investor faces risks of a linear...

In the analysis of time series, it is frequent to classify perturbations as Additive Outliers (AO), Innovative Outliers (IO), Level Shift (LS) outliers or Transitory Change (TC) outliers. In this paper, a new outlier type, the Seasonal Level Shift (SLS), is introduced in order to complete the...

The paper deals with estimation of missing observations in possibly nonstationary ARIMA models. First, the model is assumed known, and the structure of the interpolation filter is analysed. Using the inverse or dual autocorrelation function it is seen how estimation of a missing observation is...