In 2007, countries in the euro periphery were enjoying stable growth, low deficits and low spreads. Then the financial … crisis erupted and pushed them into deep recession, raising their deficits and debt levels. By 2010, they were facing severe … debt problems. Spreads increased and, surprisingly, so did the share of the debt held by domestic creditors. Credit was …

Current account imbalances and their sustainability are among the most debated international policy issues. Through the … indicates policy recommendations which, if implemented, should contribute to reducing these imbalances. In this paper, we … show larger imbalances than those calculated with the EBA for some Asian economies and smaller imbalances for some high …

links the fiscal surplus to the real value of its outstanding nominal debt. Like in the monetarist paradigm, the fiscal …

exchange rates in the long run: accelerated growth and systematic current account imbalances, which would anticipate …. Furthermore, both elements are intertwined, for current account imbalances are the other side of capital inflows which have been …

experienced by Euro area countries over the last three decades. In the model current account balances are used to smooth … (Belgium, France, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain) of the ten Euro area countries examined, although the model tends to … European countries at the creation of the Euro but they had considerably diverged by 2005. While in Portugal these expectations …

explaining the build-up of imbalances in the expansion and to conditioning the nature of the adjustment in the crisis, given that … the range of economic policy instruments is significantly narrower in EMU. The macroeconomic and financial imbalances … accumulated in the high-growth phase (the real estate boom, excess debt and the loss in competitiveness), which are all closely …

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has raised interest in early warning indicators, aimed at signalling the …, especially for the euro area. We show that a country-specific approach could strongly increase the signalling power of early …