El Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España (MTBE) constituye una herramienta fundamental para la elaboración de proyecciones a medio plazo de la economía española y para la cuantificación de los posibles efectos de distintas medidas de política económica o de perturbaciones de diversa...

The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...

This paper aims at analysing the impact of household borrowing on consumption. These variables are modelled jointly in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where labour income, wealth variables and nominal interest rates are also included. The main estimation result is that deviations of...

In this paper we provide an overview of the growth model in China and its prospects, taking a medium-run to long-run perspective. Our main conclusions are as follows. First, the still prevailing producer-biased model of managed capitalism in China tends to engender, as an inherent byproduct,...

We study the cyclical fluctuations of leverage and assets of financial intermediaries and GDP in the United States. Leverage and assets are several times more volatile than GDP, and experience larger fluctuations for unregulated (‘shadow’) intermediaries than for regulated ones. While the...

This paper analyses the long-run growth rates of advanced economies, based on demographic factors. To this end, growth is broken down into two components: growth in productivity (GDP per working-age person) and the projected rate of growth of the working-age population. Productivity is assumed...

Following the increase in private-sector indebtedness before the 2008 Great Recession, balance sheet adjustment by the most indebted agents will be a necessary condition for achieving balanced growth. This paper analyses the deleveraging of the non-financial private sector in four countries that...

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation...