Business cycle properties under different monetary policy rules are examined in a variety of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (the real business cycle models, the nominal wage contract models with different length of contracts, and the monopolistic competition models with different...

Does GDP composition affect GDP growth and volatility? Typically, economies at advanced stages of development grow slower, are less volatile and have a larger share of services in GDP with respect to economies at middle stages. I propose a theory of development consistent with these three facts....

We propose a new numerical method to solve stochastic models that combines the parameterized expectations (PEA) and the Smolyak algorithms. This method is especially convenient to address problems with occasionally binding constraints (a feature inherited from PEA) and/or a large number of state...

This study illustrates the effects of different fiscal consolidation measures on economic activity through simulations performed with a general equilibrium model calibrated to the Spanish economy. Overall, our results show that fiscal consolidation has short-run costs but sizable long-run...

The term structure of interest rates is an instrument that gives us the necessary information for valuing deterministic financial cash flows, measuring the economic market expectations and testing the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions. However, it is not directly observable and needs to...

In this paper we consider estimation of nonlinear panel data models that include multiple individual fixed effects. Estimation of these models is complicated both by the diffi culty of estimating models with possibly thousands of coeffi cients and also by the incidental parameters problem; that...

Modern DSGE models are microfounded and have deep parameters that should be invariant to changes in economic policy, so in principle they are not subject to the Lucas critique. But the literature has already established that misspecification issues also cause parameter instability after policy...

We examine the finite-sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models. Our Monte Carlo analysis reveals that small scale factor models out-perform large scale models in factor estimation and forecasting for high levels of cross-correlation across the idiosyncratic errors of...

In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge the existing gap in the literature between large- and small-scale dynamic factor models. By adopting a disaggregated modelling approach, D€STINY uses most of the information...

We study simple fiscal rules for stabilizing the government debt level in response to asymmetric demand shocks in a country that belongs to a currency union. We compare debt stabilization through tax rate adjustments with debt stabilization through expenditure changes. While rapid and flexible...