for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by … inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short …

. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting …-sized linear dynamic regressions with priors originating in the Bayesian VAR literature. Our forecasting procedure can be …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …

the model. These conditions seem to improve the forecasting ability of the term structure components and provide us with … that model in terms of fitting and forecasting properties. Moreover, with this framework it is possible to incorporate … directly the inflation rate as an additional factor without reducing the forecasting ability of the model. The augmented model …