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and sometimes the unconditional means of the nominal rate, inflation and the output gap are strongly affected by … uncertainty in the presence of the zero lower bound. Commitment to the optimal rule reduces unconditional welfare losses to around …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005590731
Taking into account two salient Spanish stylized facts, namely, a persistent disinflationary process and hysteresis in the unemployment, this paper tries to answer the following question: Is a nominal permanent disinflation compatible with short-run unemployment costs but also with long-run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005155290
We analyse the incidence of endogenous entry and firm TFP-heterogeneity on the response of aggregate inflation to … distribution of firms in Spain. We then compare the inflation response to technology, interest rate and entry cost shocks, among … others. We find that structures in which large (more productive) firms predominate tend to deliver more muted inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011105510
indicator. We find that inflation rates of both index of CPI are explained by the inflation rate of wholesale prices. For both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520558
To select the best leading indicators for predicting short-term inflation, an extensive number of economic variables is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520570
This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find … oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation variability. The impact on Spanish inflation is found to be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008496168
We study the relationship between hours worked and technology during the postwar period in the US. We show that the responses of hours to technological improvements have increased over time, and that the patterns captured by the SVAR are consistent with those obtained from an RBC model with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862289
output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-based inflation forecasts is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022237
This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022250
Filters used to estimate unobserved components in time series are often designed on a priori grounds, so as to capture the frequencies associated with the component. A limitation of these filters is that they may yield spurious results. The danger can be avoided if the so called ARIMA model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022269