We show that the distribution of any portfolio whose components jointly follow a location-scale mixture of normals can be characterised solely by its mean, variance and skewness. Under this distributional assumption, we derive the mean-variance-skewness frontier in closed form, and show that it...

The asymptotic efficiency of indirect estimation methods, such as the efficient method of moments and indirect inference, depends on the choice of the auxiliary model. To date, this choice has been somewhat ad hoc and based on an educated guess. In this article we introduce a class of...

In this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with QGARCH disturbances. This model distinguishes whether the long-run or short-run components are heteroscedastic. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with these components may...

We derive Lagrange Multiplier and Likelihood Ratio specifi cation tests for the null hypotheses of multivariate normal and Student t innovations using the Generalised Hyperbolic distribution as our alternative hypothesis. We decompose the corresponding Lagrange Multiplier-type tests into...

This paper "tests" the performance of the approaches of Watson (1993), DeJong, Ingram and Whiteman (1996), Canova and De Nicolo (1995) and Ortega (1998) for evaluating stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models using Monte Carlo techniques. It asks: Do different model evaluation methodologies...

We investigate identifiability issues in DSGE models and their consequences for parameter estimation and model evaluation when the objective function measures the distance between estimated and model impulse responses. Observational equivalence, partial and weak identification problems are...

The recent economic crisis has altered the dynamics of economic series and, as a consequence, introduced uncertainty in seasonal adjustment of recent years. This problem was discussed in recent workshops at the European Central Bank and at Eurostat in the context of adjustment of the Euro Area...

This paper proposes the use of dynamic factor models as an alternative to the VAR-based tools for the empirical validation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) theories. Along the lines of Giannone et al. (2006), we use the state-space parameterisation of the factor models proposed...

Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as...

In this paper we develop a comprehensive short-term fiscal forecasting system of use for the real-time monitoring of the Spanish government’s borrowing requirement. Spain has been at the centre of the recent European sovereign debt crisis, not least because of sizeable failures in meeting...