Showing 1 - 10 of 37
Do public sector wages exert presures on private sector wages, or has private sector a leadership role in wage setting?. This paper tries to isolate the pure signalling effect that one sector might exert on the other by controlling for other determinants of wages (prices, productivity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008486936
We construct multivariate, state-space mixed-frequencies models for the main componentsof the Spanish General Government sector made up of blocks for each one of its subsectors: Central Government, Social Security and aggregate of Regional and Local government sectors. Each block is modelled...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008486937
-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice in respect of short-term forecasting in real time … take the liberty of proposing some avenues of future research. We include bridge equations, MIDAS, VARs, factor models and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862275
This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004981597
for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by … inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010684834
-sized linear dynamic regressions with priors originating in the Bayesian VAR literature. Our forecasting procedure can be …. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008763789
reveals that small scale factor models out-perform large scale models in factor estimation and forecasting for high levels of … representative indicator of each category yields satisfactory or even better forecasting results than a large scale dynamic factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862254
In this paper we propose a new real-time forecasting model for euro area GDP growth, D€STINY, which attempts to bridge …€STINY´s forecasting performance is clearly better than the standard alternative models and than the publicly available forecasts of other …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862260
We develop a twofold analysis of how the information provided by several economic indicators can be used in Markov-switching dynamic factor models to identify the business cycle turning points. First, we compare the performance of a fully non-linear multivariate specification (one-step approach)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862279
construct an index of US business cycle conditions is also very useful for forecasting US GDP growth in real time. In addition … preferred alternative for computing backcasts. In nowcasting and forecasting, our model is able to forecast growth as well as AD …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010936748