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-specific labour imply a sufficient degree of real rigidity, and so can reproduce inflation dynamics well. However, they imply too … little real rigidity and, so, too volatile inflation, owing to strong responses of marginal wages and hours per employee … the responses of wages, inflation and employment. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004969777
. Core inflation measures typically entail excluding some components or deriving trend measures. This paper uses a structural … VAR with long-run identifying restrictions to arrive at two core measures: latent inflation and permanent inflation …. Results for the 1970-1993 period show that inflation dynamics in Spain is strongly inertial and shocks with a permanent effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004981595
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is now the dominant model of inflation dynamics. In recent years, a large body …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022270
constant inflation. This change has been more pronounced than elsewhere. We argue that this stems from the immigration boom in … 1995 would have led to an annual increase in inflation of 2.5 percentage points if it had not been largely offset by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022293
of the realized volatility is not constant and common to all. v) A forecasting horse race against 8 competing models …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862270
Much has been written about why economists failed to predict the latest financial and real crisis. Reading the recent literature, it seems that the crisis was so obvious that economists must have been blind when looking at data not to see it coming. In this paper, we analyze whether such claims...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862273
-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice in respect of short-term forecasting in real time … performance to forecast quarterly US GDP growth rates in real time. Finally, we review the main results having regard to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010862275
Should rational agents take into consideration government policy announcements? A skilled agent (an econometrician) could set up a model to combine the following two pieces of information in order to anticipate the future course of fiscal policy in real-time: (i) the ex-ante path of policy as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011210761
output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-based inflation forecasts is … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005022237
indicator. We find that inflation rates of both index of CPI are explained by the inflation rate of wholesale prices. For both …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520558