This paper analyses the risk and return of loans portfolios in a joint setting. I develop a model to obtain the distribution of loans returns. I use this model to describe the investment opportunity set of lenders using mean-variance analysis with a Value at Risk constraint. I also obtain closed...

This paper proposes a parsimonious approach to test non-linear dependence on the conditional mean and variance of hedge funds with respect to several market factors. My approach introduces non-linear dependence by means of empirically relevant polynomial functions of the factors. For comparison...

This paper analyzes the determinants of the volatility of different types of capital inflows to emerging countries. After calculating a variable that proxies capital flows volatility, we study its possible causality relations with a set of explanatory variables by type of flow through a panel...

We identify the impact of short-term interest rates on credit risk-taking by analyzing a comprehensive credit register from Spain, a country where for the last twenty years monetary policy was mostly decided abroad. Discrete choice, within borrower comparison and duration analyses show that...

Brief summaries and user instruction are presented for the programs TRAMO ("Time Series regression with ARIMA Noise, Missing Observations and Outlers") and SEATS ("Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series").

One of the most extended empirical stylized facts about output dynamics in the United States is the positive autocorrelation of output growth. This paper shows that the positive autocorrelation can be better captured by shifts between business cycle states rather than by the standard view of...

The present document details, step by step, an efficient and simple way to construct the file input for the programs TRAMO ("Time Series Regression with ARIMA Noise Missing Observations, and Outliers") and SEATS ("Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series") for all possible cases and applications....

The paper deals with the statistical treatment of macroeconomic data for short-run economic analysis, monitoring and control. The main applications are short-term forecasting and unobserved components estimation, including trend and cycle estimation, and, most often, seasonal adjustment. The...

In this article, a unified approach to automatic modeling for univariate series is presented. First, ARIMA models and the classical methods for fitting these models to a given time series are reviewed. Second, some objective methods for model identification are considered and some algorithmical...

We propose a comprehensive methodology to characterize the business cycle comovements across European economies and some industrialized countries, always trying to leave the data speak. Out of this framework, we propose a novel method to show that there is no an Euro economy that acts as an...