The Quarterly Model of Banco de España (MTBE, Modelo Trimestral del Banco de España) is a large-scale macro-econometric model used for medium term macroeconomic forecasting of the Spanish economy, as well as for evaluating the staff projections and performing scenario simulations. The model is...

Following the increase in private-sector indebtedness before the 2008 Great Recession, balance sheet adjustment by the most indebted agents will be a necessary condition for achieving balanced growth. This paper analyses the deleveraging of the non-financial private sector in four countries that...

The aim of the paper is to obtain a relaible indicator of the level and growth rate of an economic variable, when there is a trend break. This is a frequent phenomenon and has implications for short-term analysis and forecasting, besides rendering more difficult signal extraction. We propose a...

This paper presents a Bayesian vector autoregression model for the Spanish economy to aid in policy making. Forecasts of this model can be used as a useful input in constructing a macroeconomic scenario. The model is also useful in monetary programming.

This paper presents the update of the macroeconometric model used at the Bank of Spain for medium term macroeconomic forecasting, as well as for performing policy simulations. The many changes that the Spanish economy has experimented in the last years, and the new system of national accounts...

This paper is an attempt to provide an updated assessment of what we know and what do not know about the impact of monetary policy on the economy and what implications follow for the conduct of monetary policy in today's world. Firstly, we discuss the conditions under which monetary policy can...

This paper assesses the impact of oil price changes on Spanish and euro area consumer price inflation. We find, consistently with recent international evidence, that the inflationary effect of oil price changes is limited, even though crude oil price fluctuations are a major driver of inflation...

This paper aims at analysing the impact of household borrowing on consumption. These variables are modelled jointly in a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where labour income, wealth variables and nominal interest rates are also included. The main estimation result is that deviations of...