for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by … inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short …

-sized linear dynamic regressions with priors originating in the Bayesian VAR literature. Our forecasting procedure can be …. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting … models under stress. This paper evaluates the Spanish GDP nowcasting performance of combinations of small and medium …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-based inflation forecasts is … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …

This paper proposes the use of dynamic factor models as an alternative to the VAR-based tools for the empirical …