Direct use of price indices does not enable to distinguish changes in relative prices from generalised price rises. Core inflation measures typically entail excluding some components or deriving trend measures. This paper uses a structural VAR with long-run identifying restrictions to arrive at...

The paper analyses the transmission mechanism between prices and nominal wages to explain dual inflation in Spain for the 1964-1991 period. Using a vector autoregression, we find that private sector wages explain inflation and that public sector wages play a minor role. The explanatory power on...

This paper explores the dynamics of price-cost mark-ups using firm-level data, paying particular attention to the crisis period 2008-2011. To this end, we apply the econometric framework developed by Klette (1999) to a comprehensive sample of Spanish non-financial corporations in order to...

We test the Barro-Gordon model extended to allow for persistence in unemployment. First, we build an index of central bank independence and measures of persistence, and then we compare them with inflation performance in OECD countries. Our results show, as theory predicts, a robust negative...

Inflation-indexed bonds are fixed-income securities whose nominal cash flows are adjusted to an inflation index. In countries where these securities exist, inflation expectations are sometimes estimated as the spread between the nominal yield on a conventional bond and the real yield on an...

This paper reviews the existing empirical evidence on the short term impact on prices of fiscal variables and assesses it against new results from harmonised simulations, conducted with six well established econometric models used by the ECB and five national central banks (NCBs) of the...

This document contains the text of the 1998 Central Banking Lecture delivered at the London School of Economics and Political Science on June 4th. It starts by asking what factors have been behind the remarkable retreat of inflation that has taken place internationally since the mid-eighties,...

In this paper we propose a model for monthly inflation with stochastic trend, seasonal and transitory components with QGARCH disturbances. This model distinguishes whether the long-run or short-run components are heteroscedastic. Furthermore, the uncertainty associated with these components may...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is now the dominant model of inflation dynamics. In recent years, a large body of empirical research has documented price-setting behaviour at the individual level, allowing the assessment of the micro-foundations of pricing models. This paper analyses the...

This paper studies two aspects of the behaviour of provincial relative prices in Spain: the relevance and the nature of provincial inflation divergences and relative price shifts. Inflation differentials are found to be small (the range is less than half point per year in the long-run), but...