is a trend break. This is a frequent phenomenon and has implications for short-term analysis and forecasting, besides …

, potentially helping the general equilibrium environment improve forecast accuracy. In turn, the DSGE model is considered to be …

. After ten prosperous years with an average GDP growth of 3.7%, the current recession places non-judgemental forecasting …-sized linear dynamic regressions with priors originating in the Bayesian VAR literature. Our forecasting procedure can be … agencies to construct aggregate GDP figures. The real time forecast evaluation conducted over the most severe phase of the …

of the realized volatility is not constant and common to all. v) A forecasting horse race against 8 competing models …

-world practice. This survey seeks to close the gap between research and practice in respect of short-term forecasting in real time … performance to forecast quarterly US GDP growth rates in real time. Finally, we review the main results having regard to the …

for economic analysis and forecasting. This enormous volume of information, available in real time, can be handled by … inflows to Spain (the Spanish tourist industry's main customers). The improvement in the forecasting provided by the short …

indicator. We find that inflation rates of both index of CPI are explained by the inflation rate of wholesale prices. For both …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … the economy. For plausible shocks distributions the reduction in the accuracy of VAR-based inflation forecasts is … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …