The aim of this paper is to assess inflation forecasting acurracy over the short-term horizon using Consumer Price Index (CPI) disaggregated data. That is, aggregating forecasts is compared with aggregate forecasting. In particular, three questions are addressed: i) one should bottom-up or not,...

This paper elaborates on the alternative measure of persistence recently suggested in Marques (2004), which is based on the idea of mean reversion. A formal distinction between the “unconditional probability of a given process not crossing its mean in period t” and its estimator, is made...

This paper addresses some issues concerning the definition and measurement of inflation persistence in the context of the univariate approach. First, it is stressed that any estimate of persistence should be seen as conditional on the given assumption for the long run level of inflation and that...

We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary aggregates must be restricted to the low frequencies....

This paper identifies the empirical stylized features of price setting behaviour in Portugal using the micro-datasets underlying the consumer and the producer price indexes. The main conclusions are the following: 1 in every 4 prices change each month; there is a considerable degree of...

This paper compares the monetary transmission mechanism in the US and the 3 largest economies of the euro area. We start by showing that the dynamic responses to a monetary policy shock in each of the four countries are analogous. A model with a small set of frictions that broadly accounts for...

This paper argues that nominal wage inertia is a structural feature in low-inflation economies. Using a quarterly data set for six G7 countries we show that, unlike price inflation, nominal wage inflation responds sluggishly to both monetary and technology shocks. Accounting for this inertial...

This paper argues that the flexible price paradigm is superior to the sticky price paradigm in the context of general equilibrium models. Based on a quarterly data set for six G7 economies, the paper presents two types of evidence showing that prices respond significantly to their underlying...

Many business cycle indicators present asymmetric features that have long been recognized in economics. Basically the contraction periods in an economy are more violent but also more short-lived than the expansion periods, where the dynamics of GDP/GNP growth present asymmetric cyclical...

We resort to a rigorous definition of spectrum of an integrated time series in order to characterise the implications of applying linear filters to such series. We conclude that in the presence of integrated series the transfer function of the filters has exactly the same interpretation as in...