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Unpleasant debt dynamics: Can fiscal consolidations raise debt ratios?

Castro, Gabriela Lopes de; Félix, Ricardo Mourinho; … - Banco de Portugal - 2015

Using PESSOA, a medium-scale DSGE model for a small euro-area economy, we evaluate how scal adjustments impact short- and medium-term debt dynamics and output for alternative policy options, and budgetary and economic conditions. Fiscal djustments may increase the public debt-to-GDP ratio in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011228163

Bayesian estimation of a DSGE model for the Portuguese economy

Almeida, Vanda - Banco de Portugal - 2009

In this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524254

Rational vs. Professional Forecasts

Azevedo, João Valle e; Jalles, João Tovar - Banco de Portugal - 2011

We compare theoretical and empirical forecasts computed by rational agents living in a model economy to those produced by professional forecasters. We focus on the variance of the prediction errors as a function of the forecast horizon and analyze the speed with which it converges to a constant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009018520

Forecasting Inflation (and the Business Cycle?) with Monetary Aggregates

Azevedo, João Valle e; Pereira, Ana - Banco de Portugal - 2010

We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully … disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008691865

Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy: Equivalence Results

Correia, Isabel Horta; Nicolini, Juan Pablo; Teles, Pedro - Banco de Portugal - 2003

In this paper, we analyze the implications of price setting restrictions for the conduct of cyclical fiscal and monetary policy. We consider an environment with monopolistic competitive firms, a shopping time technology, prices set one period in advance, and government expenditures that must be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520399

Hedonic Prices Indexes for New Passenger Cars in Portugal (1997-2001)

Reis, Hugo J.; Silva, J.M.C. Santos - Banco de Portugal - 2002

In this paper we study the effects of quality change on the price index for new passenger cars in Portugal for the years 1997-2001. Hedonic regression models are studied, giving particular emphasis to the relation between the form of the price index and the specification of the hedonic equation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524112

Stylised Features of Price Setting Behaviour in Portugal: 1992-2001

Dias, Mónica; Dias, Daniel; Neves, Pedro Duarte - Banco de Portugal - 2004

price setting patterns at the consumer level seem to depend on the level of inflation as well as on the type of outlet. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524125

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism: Is it Relevant for Policy?

Adão, Bernardino; Correia, Isabel Horta; Teles, Pedro - Banco de Portugal - 2003

We study environments with sticky prices, wages or portfolios where it is feasible and optimal to use monetary policy to replicate the allocation under full flexibility. In these environments the optimal policy does not depend on the scope of the frictions. In this sense, the strength of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524136

Monetary Policy with State Contingent Interest Rates

Adão, Bernardino; Correia, Isabel Horta; Teles, Pedro - Banco de Portugal - 2004

What instruments of monetary policy must be used in order to implement a unique equilibrium? This paper revisits the issues addressed by Sargent and Wallace (1975) on the multiplicity of equilibria when policy isconducted with interest rate rules. We show that the appropriate interestrate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524141

Evaluating Core Inflation Indicators

Marques, Carlos Robalo; Neves, Pedro Duarte; Sarmento, … - Banco de Portugal - 2000

This paper proposes testable conditions that core inflation measures should satisfy. Trend inflation indicators … inflation”, the “10% trimmed mean”, and the “25% trimmed mean” do not meet the proposed conditions. However, they are satisfied …” indicators. Yet, only the last two indicators can be used as useful core inflation measures, as the first one is not computable …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524143