We show that euro forward rates are biased predictors of future interest rates. A small part of this bias arises from unexpected changes in interest rates, while a larger part is explained by the forward premia, which are generally not time-varying. We estimate the the 3-month forward premia for...

This paper investigates the dynamics of aggregate wages and prices in the United States (US) and the Euro Area (EA) with a special focus on persistence of real wages, wage and price inflation. The analysis is conducted within a structural vector error-correction model, where the structural...

This paper investigates the persistence of aggregate wages and prices in Portugal assuming a model of a unionized economy with imperfect competition. An impulse response analysis is conducted where the structural shocks are identified by taking into account the long-run properties of the model,...

In this paper we re-evaluate the empirical evidence on money-inflation Granger causality for the euro area and, in contrast to Trecroci and Vega (2000), conclude that money does in fact Granger cause inflation. We also show that it takes about a year and a half for changes in money growth to...

The aim of this paper is to assess inflation forecasting acurracy over the short-term horizon using Consumer Price Index (CPI) disaggregated data. That is, aggregating forecasts is compared with aggregate forecasting. In particular, three questions are addressed: i) one should bottom-up or not,...

This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal that result from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. It covers the years from 1996 to 2012 and was based on a comprehensive analysis of tax policy measures taken in the course of this...

In this paper, we examine the empirical validity of the baseline version of the forward-looking monetary policy reaction function proposed by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000). For that purpose, we propose a moment conditions model averaging estimator in the Generalized Method of Moments and...

As long as Portugal was on the gold standard, the Bank of Portugal, sought to stabilize the currency at the exchange rate to which the country was committed. Because it was subject to political and other constraints, the Bank carried out discount rate interventions excessively sparingly,...

This paper develops a new measure of US fiscal policy shocks that intends to avoid the anticipation problem affecting conventional measures, being also arguably free from endogeneity. The shocks are intended to capture changes to the component of anticipated fiscal policy that is exogenous to...

Using micro level data, this work characterizes the interest rate pass-through in loan and deposit retail rates of the Portuguese banking system. It concludes that the long-run impact of a change in money market rates on loans is typically around one while it is smaller than one for deposits....