This paper quantifies the role of expectation-driven cycles for housing market fluctuations in the United States. We find that news shocks: (1) account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and (2) significantly...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model for the positive and normativeanalysis of macroprudential policies. Optimizing financial intermediaries allocate theirscarce net worth together with funds raised from saving households across two lendingactivities, mortgage and corporate lending....

This paper provides new insights into expectation-driven cycles by estimating a structuralVAR with time-varying coefficients and stochastic volatility, as in Cogley and Sargent (2005)and Primiceri (2005). We use survey-based expectations of the unemployment rate to measureexpectations of future...

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households' expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We find that, in...

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary...

How important are collateral constraints for the propagation and amplification of shocks? To address this question, we analyze a stochastic general equilibrium version of the model by Kiyotaki and Moore (JPE, 1997) in which all agents face concave production and utility functions and are...

We augment a medium-scale DSGE model with monetary policy news shocks and …t it to US data. Monetary policy news shocks improve the performance of the model both in terms of marginal data density and in terms of its ability to match the empirical moments of the variables used as observables. We...

What are the macroeconomic implications of higher leveraged borrowing? To address this question, we develop a business cycle model with credit frictions in which firms reallocate capital among themselves through the credit market. We find that looser collateral requirements moderate the...