Showing 1 - 10 of 58
The aim of this paper is to assess inflation forecasting acurracy over the short-term horizon using Consumer Price … Index (CPI) disaggregated data. That is, aggregating forecasts is compared with aggregate forecasting. In particular, three … using Portuguese CPI dataset. Aggregating the forecasts seems to be better than aggregate forecasting up to a five …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524272
discussed. For forecasting quarterly euro area GDP growth using a small set of selected indicators, the results obtained suggest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010833990
forecasting errors, combining judgements with sample and model information. We assume that the relevant variables are linear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524111
suggest that the forecasting performance of the international organisations is broadly similar to that of the surveys of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009207326
In this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524254
Over recent years several methods to deal with high-frequency data (economic, financial and other) have been proposed in the literature. An interesting example is for instance interval valued time series described by the temporal evolution of high and low prices of an asset. In this paper a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009319002
How should we forecast GDP? Should we forecast directly the overall GDP or aggregate the forecasts for each of its components using some level of disaggregation? The search for the answer continues to motivate several horse races between these two approaches. Nevertheless, independently of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009352075
macroeconomic forecasting. Specifically, survey nowcasts are treated as anadditional observation of the time series of interest … nowcasts are very hard to beat, this approach proves most useful as a means of developing a sharper forecasting routine for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011228161
The estimation of dynamic factor models for large cross-sections poses a challenge in a real time environment. As macroeconomic data become available with different delays, unbalanced panel data sets with missing values at the end of the sample period (the so-called "jagged edge") have to be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524134
Building on the New Area Wide Model, we develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008524162