This paper analyzes the behavior of firms with defaulted credits in terms of recovery or extinction. By defining classes for the severity of default, survival models for the multiple transitions from each class are estimated. The models are used to simulate the evolution of a firm’s credit...

Understanding why some firms default, while others do not, is an important issue for the assessment of financial stability. In this domain, it may be interesting to understand if credit risk is driven mostly by idiosyncratic firm characteristics or by systematic factors, which simultaneously...

The paper presents an insolvency risk analysis of Portuguese companies with three techniques: logistic regression, discriminant analysis and support vector machines (SVM). It identifies the most critical predictors of default based on the accounting, employee and debt concentration data. A...

We study the impact of financial variables upon bankruptcy and voluntary exit. Controlling for efficiency, which we find to decrease the odds of both bankruptcy and voluntary exit, characteristics of firms which correlate with the firms' access to funds, exert very different impacts upon the two...

In this paper we investigate what happens to firms after they default on their bank loans. We approach this question by establishing a set of stylized facts concerning the evolution of default and its resolution, focusing on access to credit after default. Using a unique dataset from Portugal,...

In this article we study the resilience of the Portuguese labor market, in terms of job flows, employment and wage developments, in the context of the current recession. We single out the huge contribution of job destruction, especially due to the closing of existing firms, to the dramatic...

In this paper we look at fixed-term contracts and examine the main features of temporary as opposed to regular employment, keeping the focus on employment careers and wage dynamics of workers employed under fixed-term contracts. Previous work found that fixed-term contracts serve as screening...

In this paper we discuss the structure of labor adjustment costs in relationship to the dynamics of job and worker flows. Using high frequency data, we document a previously unsuspected degree of lumpiness in employment adjustment, which is characteristic of non-convex adjustment costs. By means...

This paper exploits an area-based pilot experiment to identify average treatment effects on unemployment duration of treated individuals of two active labor market programs implemented in Portugal. We focus on the short-term heterogeneous impact on two subpopulations of unemployed individuals:...