This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal that result from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. It covers the years from 1996 to 2012 and was based on a comprehensive analysis of tax policy measures taken in the course of this...

This paper develops a new measure of US fiscal policy shocks that intends to avoid the anticipation problem affecting conventional measures, being also arguably free from endogeneity. The shocks are intended to capture changes to the component of anticipated fiscal policy that is exogenous to...

In this paper, we examine the empirical validity of the baseline version of the forward-looking monetary policy reaction function proposed by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (2000). For that purpose, we propose a moment conditions model averaging estimator in the Generalized Method of Moments and...

As long as Portugal was on the gold standard, the Bank of Portugal, sought to stabilize the currency at the exchange rate to which the country was committed. Because it was subject to political and other constraints, the Bank carried out discount rate interventions excessively sparingly,...

We show that euro forward rates are biased predictors of future interest rates. A small part of this bias arises from unexpected changes in interest rates, while a larger part is explained by the forward premia, which are generally not time-varying. We estimate the the 3-month forward premia for...

Using micro level data, this work characterizes the interest rate pass-through in loan and deposit retail rates of the Portuguese banking system. It concludes that the long-run impact of a change in money market rates on loans is typically around one while it is smaller than one for deposits....

This paper presents a methodology for detecting asset price booms and busts using non-parametric quantile regressions. The method consists in estimating the distribution of real stock prices as a function of fundamental determinants of stock returns, namely real economic activity and real...

Capital flows into the euro area were particularly large in the mid-2000s and the share of foreign holdings of euro area securities increased substantially between the introduction of the euro and the outbreak of the global financial crisis. We show that the increase in foreign holdings of euro...

The financial markets turmoil of 2007-09 impacted on the overnight segment, which is the first step of monetary policy implementation. We model the volatility of the EONIA spread as an EGARCH. However, the nature of the EGARCH considered will be different in the period before the fixed rate full...

This paper aims to identify the determinants behind the different evolution of sovereign bond yields in euro area countries for the period of the current crisis. Up to the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, global risk premium was the main driver of spreads. Afterwards, the relevance of...