This paper develops a model of a small open economy integrated in a monetary union. The model incorporates the standard nominal and real frictions in the literature. The parameters of the model are calibrated to the Portuguese data and the effects of the standard monetary policy shock are studied.

This paper reassesses the role of the M3 aggregate for monetary policy purposes in the euro area. Using data until 2006Q4 it is shown that the M3 aggregate ceased to display the empirical properties that supported its prominent role in the ECB’s monetary policy strategy. On the one hand, when...

We show that short and long nominal interest rates are independent monetary policy instruments. The pegging of both helps solving the problem of multiplicity that arises when only short rates are used as the instrument of policy. A peg of the nominal returns on assets of different maturities is...

This paper assesses the usefulness of business surveys as a source of information for investment developments in Portugal. This will be achieved by what will be named a “fishing contest”, where the “participants” are bridge models, models based on principal components (derived from...

This paper takes the neo classical model of the investment decision of the firm and adds a Moral Hazard problem to it. The Moral Hazard problem, which arises due to the separation between ownership and control, induces empirical results from sample splits, which are usually interpreted as a sign...

What are the macroeconomic implications of higher leveraged borrowing? To address this question, we develop a business cycle model with credit frictions in which firms reallocate capital among themselves through the credit market. We find that looser collateral requirements moderate the...

We explore a new approach for nowcasting the output gap based on singular spectrum analysis. Resorting to real-time vintages, a recursive exercise is conducted so to assess the real-time reliability of our approach for nowcasting the US output gap, in comparison with some well-known benchmark...

This paper quantifies the role of expectation-driven cycles for housing market fluctuations in the United States. We find that news shocks: (1) account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and (2) significantly...

We take to the data an RBC model with two salient features. First, we allow government consumption to directly affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, we allow public capital to affect the productivity of private factors. On the one hand, private and government consumption are...

We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary aggregates must be restricted to the low frequencies....