We show how monetary aggregates can be usefully incorporated in forecasts of inflation. This requires fully disregarding the high-frequency fluctuations blurring the money/inflation relation, i.e., the projection of inflation onto monetary aggregates must be restricted to the low frequencies....

Many business cycle indicators present asymmetric features that have long been recognized in economics. Basically the contraction periods in an economy are more violent but also more short-lived than the expansion periods, where the dynamics of GDP/GNP growth present asymmetric cyclical...

The issue of parameter identification arises whenever structural models are estimated. This paper develops a simple condition for local identification in linearized DSGE models. The condition is necessary and sufficient for identification with likelihood-based methods under normality, or with...

This paper presents a new approach to parameter identification analysis in DSGE models wherein the strength of identification is treated as property of the underlying model and studied prior to estimation. The strength of identification reflects the empirical importance of the economic features...

This paper quantifies the role of expectation-driven cycles for housing market fluctuations in the United States. We find that news shocks: (1) account for a sizable fraction of the variability in house prices and other macroeconomic variables over the business cycle and (2) significantly...

This paper analyses the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary union with a segmented financial market. Differences in the households' information sets imply that a money supply shock yields permanently heterogeneous allocations across households. The distribution of liquidity is...

This paper compares the monetary transmission mechanism in the US and the 3 largest economies of the euro area. We start by showing that the dynamic responses to a monetary policy shock in each of the four countries are analogous. A model with a small set of frictions that broadly accounts for...

This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households' expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We find that, in...

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary...

We augment a medium-scale DSGE model with monetary policy news shocks and …t it to US data. Monetary policy news shocks improve the performance of the model both in terms of marginal data density and in terms of its ability to match the empirical moments of the variables used as observables. We...