Inventory fluctuations are an important phenomenon in business cycles. However, the preliminary data on inventory investment as published in the German national accounts are tremendously prone to revision and therefore ill-equipped to diagnose the current stance of the inventory cycle. The Ifo...

This paper introduces a new class of multivariate volatility models which is easy to estimate using covariance targeting, even with rich dynamics. We call them rotated ARCH (RARCH) models. The basic structure is to rotate the returns and then to fit them using a BEKK-type parameterization of the...

This article contains a review of multivariate GARCH models. Most common GARCH models are presented and their properties considered. This also includes semiparametric and nonparametric GARCH models. Existing specification and misspecification tests are discussed. Finally, there is an empirical...

Measuring and displaying uncertainty around path-forecasts, i.e. forecasts made in period T about the expected trajectory of a random variable in periods T+1 to T+H is a key ingredient for decision making under uncertainty. The probabilistic assessment about the set of possible trajectories that...

In this paper we propose a Lagrange multiplier test for volatility interactions among markets or assets. The null hypothesis is the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH model in which volatility of an asset is described only through lagged squared innovations and volatility of its own. The...

In this paper I analyze the relative performance of Gaussian and Student-t GARCH and FIGARCH type models for volatility and Value-at-Risk forecasting of daily stock-returns using data from the Spanish equity index IBEX-35. The in-sample analysis shows that the Student-t FIAPARCH process provides...

In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The approach adopted here is based on the decomposition of the covariances into correlations and standard deviations. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two...

This paper introduces a new class of multivariate volatility models that utilizes high-frequency data.  We discuss the models' dynamics and highlight their differences from multivariate GARCH models.  We also discuss their covariance targeting specification and provide closed-form formulas...

This paper examines the role of exchange rates in determining the short-and-long run trade balance behavior for Colombia. Conventional wisdom says that a nominal devaluation improves the trade balance. This conjecture is rooted in the Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler(BRM) and Marshall-Lerner(ML)...

This paper presents a two-sector growth model of international trade that can account for the key features of the postwar world development experience. Two sectors represent the traditional primitive production and the modern sophisticated production. Due to increasing returns in the modern...