We propose a new model for the variance between multiple time series, the Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation. We decompose the covariances into correlations and standard deviations and the correlation matrix follow a regime switching model; it is constant within a regime but different across...

It is a well accepted fact that stock returns data are often characterized by market microstructure effects, such as bid-ask spreads, liquidity ratios, turnover and asymmetric information. This is particularly relevant when dealing with high frequency data, which are often used to compute model...

Today?s level of financial integration and development of international capital markets is often compared to the pre-World War I Gold Standard. However, the propensity to currency crises seems higher today than in the past. Furthermore, the dynamics of crises has changed: In the most recent...

This paper analyzes the robustness of the estimate of a positive productivity shock on hours to the presence of a possible unit root in hours. Estimations in levels or in first differences provide opposite conclusions. We rely on an agnostic procedure in which the researcher does not have to...

Structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) have become a standard tool used to determine the roles of monetary policy shocks in generating cyclical fluctuations in the United States. Using both long- and short-run identifying restrictions, various authors have explored the empirical response of...

Recently financial econometricians have shifted their attention from point and interval forecasts to density forecasts mainly to address the issue of the huge loss of information that results from depicting portfolio risk by a measure of dispersion alone. One of the major problems in this area...

The aim of the paper is to fulfill the gap for testing hypotheses on parameters of the log-normal stochastic volatility model, more precisely, to propose finite sample exact tests in the sense that the tests have correct levels in small samples. To do this, we examine method-of-moments-based...

I examine the statistical model of permanent and transitory shocks to output under the following structural assumptions: An aggregate supply shock that raises output will cause the price level to fall and an aggregate demand shock that initially raises output will cause the price level to rise....

Economic policy decisions are often informed by empirical economic analysis. While the decision-maker is usually only interested in good estimates of outcomes, the analyst is interested in estimating the model. Accurate inference on the structural features of a model, such as cointegration, can...

There is considerable disagreement in the empirical macro literature as to the degree of returns to scale in U.S. production. While many studies find evidence of a small degree of increasing returns, standard errors are typically large. This issue is of importance for assessing the possibility...