This paper develops a limiting theory for Wald tests of weak exogeneity in error correction models (ECMs). It is well known that Wald statistics on cointegrated systems may involve nonstandard distribution and nuisance parameters, if $I(1)$ variables are not negligible in the statistics. To...

Developments in the global electronics industry are typically monitored by tracking indicators that span a whole spectrum of activities in the sector. However, these indicators invariably give mixed signals at each point in time, thereby hampering efforts at prediction. In this paper, we present...

This paper aims at identifying the main shocks, which cause movements in real GNP. It does so by searching for two shocks in the context of a VAR model, which explain the majority of the k-step ahead prediction error variances in real GNP for horizons between 0 and 5 years. We find that two...

Observations of security prices and other financial time series usually include not only the close (C), but also an open, a high and a low (O,H,L) price for a specified interval. The multivariate vector of values (H,L,O,C) is obviously more informative than just the open or close (O, C) for...