Durante los últimos años el análisis del riesgo de crédito y su dinámica se ha convertido en un tema de alta importancia para la estabilidad del sistema financiero. Es por esto que resulta vital estudiar los co-movimientos que se presentan entre este riesgo y el ciclo económico. En este...

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments....

La existencia de memoria de largo plazo en las series financieras implica que los retornos de un activo hoy pueden tener incidencia sobre los retornos futuros, incluso más allá del corto plazo. En presencia de dicha memoria el horizonte de inversión elegido puede resultar en diferentes...

The financial crisis of the late 2000's highlighted the importance of strengthening risk management systems in financial markets. Consequently, an increasing interest in strategies to quantify risk under extreme scenarios has spawned. One of such techniques is CrashMetrics, a methodology for...

Financial basics and intuition stresses the importance of investment horizon for risk management and asset allocation. However, the beta parameter of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is invariant to the holding period. Such contradiction is due to the assumption of long-term independence...

Es una práctica muy difundida el multiplicar la desviación estándar por la raíz del tiempo para escalarla a otros plazos. Así, con base en la estimación de la desviación estándar o del VaR (Value at Risk) diario, es usual obtener la desviación estándar o el VaR para un periodo de diez...

In this document we estimate credit and GDP cycles for three Latin-American economies and study their relation in the time and frequency domains. Cycles are estimated in order to analyze their medium and short-term frequencies. We find that short-term cycles are usually more volatile than...

We set a dynamic stochastic model for the interbank daily market for funds in Colombia. The framework features exogenous reserve requirements and requirement period, competitive trading among heterogeneous commercial banks, daily open market operations held by the Central Bank (auctions and...

In this document we develop a DSGE model to analyze the effect that a consumption boom and a productivity shock have over financial stability and macroeconomic variables, in both, an economy with and without Basel III capital requirements and earnings reinvestment rule. The results suggest that...

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding...