This document explores the predictive power of the yield curves in Latin America (Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Chile) taking into account the factors set by the specifications of Nelson & Siegel and Svensson. Several forecasting methodologies are contrasted: an autoregressive model, a vector...

The most recent financial crisis unveiled that liquidity risk is far more important and intricate than regulation have conceived. The shift from bank-based to market-based financial systems and from Deferred Net Systems to liquidity-demanding Real-Time Gross Settlement of payments explains some...

As a natural extension to León and Vivas (2010) and León and Reveiz (2010) this paper briefly describes the Cholesky method for simulating Geometric Brownian Motion processes with long-term dependence, also referred as Fractional Geometric Brownian Motion (FBM). Results show that this method...

El presente trabajo da cuenta de las principales lecciones que se han recogido en materia de política monetaria y financiera sobre la crisis actual, y traza un paralelo con la crisis colombiana de los noventa (guardadas las proporciones) y con las acciones que de ella se derivaron. Además...

The paper examines the bidders behaviour in the Colombian government bond auctions during 2007 for the period in which there is no uncertainty in the supply. Three main findings are presented. First, in contrast with other treasury auctions (Castellanos [2]), the market clearing price in the...

Este trabajo hace una contribución a la caracterización de las entidades sistémicas así como las vías mediante las cuales este riesgo se presenta en el sistema. Inicialmente, siguiendo la metodología propuesta por Zhou (2010), se estiman y analizan indicadores de riesgo sistémico para los...

En este artículo se analizan los principales determinantes de la rentabilidad de los bancos comerciales en Colombia durante el período comprendido entre enero de 2000 y mayo de 2007. Se estiman los efectos de los movimientos en la tasa de cambio peso dólar sobre dicha rentabilidad, tanto en...

Asset prices have recently become a common topic in economic debate. Nevertheless, much time has been spent in determining if they effectively exhibit a bubble component, and not in examining whether asset prices affectively contain relevant information concerning future market developments....

In this paper we investigate the impact of rapid credit growth on ex ante credit risk. We present micro-econometric evidence of the positive relationship between rapid credit growth and deterioration in lending portfolios: Loans granted during boom periods have higher probability of default than...

Este documento evalúa la regulación vigente relacionada con la administración de los portafolios de los Fondos de Pensiones Obligatorios (FPO), para esto revisa la literatura relacionada con la eficiencia del Sistema dadas sus actuales restricciones. Se concluye que el marco regulatorio de...