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Combinación de brechas del producto colombiano.
Beltrán, Paulo Mauricio Sánchez; Velandia, Luis … - Banco de la Republica de Colombia - 2013
Este documento combina estimaciones de ocho metodologías de la brecha del producto colombiano para el período comprendido entre el primer trimestre de 1994 y el tercer trimestre de 2012. A partir de modelos VAR que incluyen las diferentes brechas y la inflación se construyen las densidades...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010906061
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Efecto de los cambios en el gasto y en los ingresos del gobierno sobre el PIB: Una caracterización empírica para Colombia
Robledo, Jacobo Campo - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
Este documento caracteriza los efectos dinámicos de los choques en el gasto y los ingresos del gobierno sobre la actividad económica en Colombia, durante el periodo 1980:1 - 2004:1. Esto mediante un VAR estructural mixto. El SVAR se estima utilizando el procedimiento de Blanchard y Perotti...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005274358
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Determinants of the Exchange Rate in Colombia under Inflation Targeting
Estrada, Fredy Alejandro Gamboa - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
This research studies the forecasting performance of conventional and more recent exchange rate models in Colombia. The … purpose is to explain which have been the main exchange rate determinants under an Inflation Targeting regime and a completely …-Price Monetary Model and the Taylor Rule model that includes the real exchange rate. In addition, out of sample forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008800760
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IDENTIFYING FISCAL POLICY SHOCKS IN CHILE AND COLOMBIA
Restrepo, Jorge E.; Rincón, Hernán - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
Structural VAR and Structural VEC models were estimated for Chile and Colombia, aiming at identifying fiscal policy shocks in both countries between 1990 and 2005. The impulse responses obtained allow the calculation of a pesofor- peso ($/$) effect on output of a shock to public spending and to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005113931
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Bayesian Model Averaging. An Application to Forecast Inflation in Colombia
González, Eliana - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
inflation for the short and medium run. A model selection algorithm is applied over a set of linear models with a large dataset … likelihood outperformed the ones obtained when using marginal likelihood. BMA forecasts reduce forecasting error compared to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008459019
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Inflación y dinero en Colombia: otro modelo P-estrella
González, Andrés; Melo, Luis Fernando; Posada, Carlos … - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
Este documento reporta los resultados de la estimaci´on de una versi´on reciente del modelo P-estrella de Gerlach y Svensson (2003) para Colombia (1980:I - 2005:IV) y sus predicciones. El modelo está diseñado para explicar la brecha de inflaci´on (tasa observada menos la meta) con base en...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005489420
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Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia’s exchange rate survey
Echavarría, Juan José; Villamizar, Mauricio - Banco de la Republica de Colombia - 2012
In this document we use the Expectations Survey conducted monthly by the Central Bank of Colombia during the period of October 2003 – August 2012. We find that exchange rate revaluations were generally followed by expectations of further revaluation in the short run (1 month), but by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010576081
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A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity
Melo, Luis Fernando; Nieto, Fabio; Ramos, Mario - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
In this paper,we propose a methodology for calculating a leading index of the economic activity based on a modification of Stock and Watson's (1989, 1991, 1992) approach. We use Kalman filter techniques for estimating the state space representation of the leading index model. The methodology is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005035890
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Pronósticos de agregados a partir de desagregados Caso empírico: Inflación de alimentos en Colombia
Molano, Eliana Rocío González - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
Pronosticar la inflación de alimentos es uno de los grandes retos del Banco central, debido a la alta ponderación de los alimentos dentro del IPC y puesto que los rubros que conforman este grupo obedecen principalmente a factores de oferta que no son fácilmente predecibles ni reaccionan a la...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005650557
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Un Pronóstico no Paramétrico de la Inflación Colombiana
Norberto Rodríguez N.; Patricia Siado C. - Banco de la Republica de Colombia
This paper contains the results of a non parametric multi-step ahead forecast for the monthly Colombian inflation …, using Mean conditional Kernel estimation over inflation changes, with no inclusion of exogenous variables. The results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005783908