Bajo un régimen No-Ricardiano o de dominancia fiscal, el banco central pierde autonomía en el control de la inflación, especialmente en circunstancias de insostenibilidad de las finanzas públicas. En este trabajo se evalúa la presencia de un régimen de esta naturaleza en la economía...

Este documento resume las principales conclusiones del ejercicio realizado con el objetivo de analizar la forma cómo algunos países emergentes, con diversos esquemas de política monetaria, manejan su política cambiaria. La pregunta que suscitó este análisis fue: ¿Cómo han logrado los...

To evaluate whether transparency is beneficial, it is usual to assume that the central bank may choose one of two options, opacity versus truthful communication. However, the monetary policymaker may have incentives to misrepresent private information so as to reduce economic volatility by...

This paper propose indicator variables for the implementation of monetary policy in an inflation targeting regime. Using constant interest rate projections, the notion of a target-compatible interest rate is presented. This variable allows to extract some characteristics that the expected future...

In this paper we study the effect of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices. While most of the literature has found that expansionary shocks have a positive effect on aggregate price indices, we study the effect on individual prices of a sample of four commodities. This set of commodity...

The assessment of inflationary pressures in Colombia has faced two important challenges in the present decade. The first one occurred in 2006 and consisted of detecting an overheating economy in the midst of fast growing investment and increasing measured productivity. The second challenge took...

This work analyzes the relationship between real interest rates and commodity prices. According to Frankel’s hypothesis (1986-2006): "low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices". However, some empirical evidence suggests that commodity prices can predict monetary policy. In...

This paper is concerned with interest rate setting by commercial banks and how the transmission of monetary policy is re°ected in these rates. For this purpose we study the case of the Colombian banking industry for the period 1996-2004. Using microdata, the Certi¯cate of Deposit(CD) market...

The objective of this paper is to analyze how international cycles affect the real GDP cycle and so monetary policy decisions in Colombia. We estimate that cycles in world GDP, export prices and capital inflows are strongly associated with the Colombian business cycle both on impact and even...

In this document we lay out the microeconomic foundations of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to forecast and to advice monetary policy authorities in Colombia. The model is called Policy Analysis Tool Applied to Colombian Needs (PATACON). In companion documents we present...