In this paper, we modeled the Colombian long run economic growth (1925-2003) using a tworegime first order Markov switching model. We found evidence of non-linearity in the annual rate of economic growth. The results show that changes between regimes are sudden and sporadic. The Colombian...

In this paper, we modelled the Colombian long run per capita economic growth (1925-2005) using a Markov switching regime model with both fixed (FTP) and time-varying transition probabilities (TVTP) to explain regime changes in the economic growth. We found evidence of non-linearity in the per...

In the context of financial crises influenced by the development and burst of housing price bubbles, the detection of exuberant behaviors in the financial market and the implementation of early warning diagnosis tests are of vital importance. This paper applies the new method developed by...

This paper evaluates the fiscal sustainability hypothesis for eight Latin American countries, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Panama, Peru, Paraguay and Uruguay, during the period 1960 - 2009. Using second generation cointegration panel data models, we test whether Government revenues and...

This paper investigates whether transforming the Consumer Price Index with a class of power transformations lead to an improvement of inflation forecasting accuracy. We use one of the prototypical models to forecast short run inflation which is known as the univariate time series ARIMA . This...

Typically, when forecasting inflation rates, there are a variety of individual models and a combination of several of these models. We implement a Bayesian shrinkage combination methodology to include information that is not captured by the individual models using expert forecasts as prior...

En este trabajo se analiza empíricamente la sostenibilidad fiscal en Colombia a través de las técnicas de cointegración. En particular, usando los ingresos tributarios y los gastos primarios del gobierno nacional central para el período 1990Q1 a 2008Q4 (datos reales y ajustados por el ciclo...

En este documento se establecen algunos hechos estilizados acerca del comportamiento de los precios regulados en Colombia. Se analiza el grado de rigidez de los precios en diferentes categorías de productos, con un énfasis particular en los precios regulados. En el documento se establece que...

Evidence of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) representations is found in two, out of three, time series of different measures of annual inflation in Colombia during this decade for monthly data. The STAR-type nonlinearities are asymmetric for inflation computed as the variation of CPI...

This paper contains the results of a non parametric multi-step ahead forecast for the monthly Colombian inflation, using Mean conditional Kernel estimation over inflation changes, with no inclusion of exogenous variables. The results are compared with those from an ARIMA and a nonlinear STAR....