Showing 1 - 10 of 92
We present a new matrix-logarithm model of the realized covariance matrix of stock returns. The model uses latent factors which are functions of both lagged volatility and returns. The model has several advantages: it is parsimonious; it does not require imposing parameter restrictions; and, it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536896
The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011265714
Inflation targeting (IT) had originally been introduced as a device to bring inflation down and stabilize it at low levels. Given the current environment of persistently weak inflation in many advanced economies, IT central banks must now bring inflation up to target. In this paper, the author...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011094224
obvious advantage of financial and energy market data in forecasting oil prices is their availability in real time on a daily … monthly inventories. We conclude that typically not much is lost by ignoring high-frequency financial data in forecasting the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762047
Information on the allocation and pricing of over-the-counter (OTC) markets is scarce. Furfine (1999) pioneered an algorithm that provides transaction-level data on the OTC interbank lending market. The veracity of the data identified, however, is not well established. Using permutation methods,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010783634
This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or education, other characteristics such as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010783636
In this paper, the authors develop a new tool to improve the short-term forecasting of real GDP growth in the euro area …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010783640
important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is …. Our objective is to evaluate this proposition. We derive from first principles a number of alternative forecasting model … not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010849957
approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model … the single mostaccurate forecasting model by horizon, its accuracy can be shown to be much more stable over time. The mean …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960393
Using the prices of crude oil futures contracts, we construct the term structure of crude oil convenience yields out to one-year maturity. The crude oil convenience yield can be interpreted as the interest rate, denominated in barrels of oil, for borrowing a single barrel of oil, and it measures...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010960394