important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is …. Our objective is to evaluate this proposition. We derive from first principles a number of alternative forecasting model … not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one …

approach of combining five of the leading forecasting models with equal weights dominates the strategy of selecting one model … the single mostaccurate forecasting model by horizon, its accuracy can be shown to be much more stable over time. The mean …

This paper conducts a real-time, out-of-sample analysis of the forecasting power of various aggregate financial …

The authors describe the key features of a new large-scale Canadian macroeconomic forecasting model developed over the …

forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor …. For most of the components, we report that factor models yield lower forecasting errors than a simple AR process or an … improvements in terms of forecasting accuracy are found for more volatile periods, such as the recent financial crisis. However …

We address some of the key questions that arise in forecasting the price of crude oil. What do applied forecasters need … in forecasting the price of oil? How useful are survey forecasts? How does one evaluate the sensitivity of a baseline oil …