Engert, Walter; Hendry, Scott - Bank of Canada - 1998
A central bank's main concern is the general direction of future inflation, and not transitory fluctuations of the … inflation rate. As a result, this paper is concerned with forecasting a simple measure of the trend of inflation, the eight …-quarter CPI-inflation rate. The primary objective is to improve the M1-based vector-error-correction model (VECM) developed by …