This paper studies the formation of consumers’ inflation expectations using micro-level data from the Michigan Survey …. It shows that beyond the well-established socio-economic determinants of inflation expectations such as gender, income or …. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties, pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, or expectations that …

A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is …

The effectiveness of monetary policy depends, to a large extent, on market expectations of its future actions. In a … standard New Keynesian business-cycle model with rational expectations, systematic monetary policy reduces the variance of … inflation and the output gap by at least two-thirds. These stabilization benefits can be substantially smaller if expectations …

Mark (2000) relax the assumption of rational expectations and in its place use the assumption of distorted beliefs. The …

proposed. Particle filtering techniques allow for fast and efficient updates of posterior quantities and forecasts in real time …

Notwithstanding a resurgence in research on out-of-sample forecasts of the price of oil in recent years, there is one …

The answer as to whether there are gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts depends on the objective. The … and using it for all horizons up to two years. Even more accurate forecasts, however, are obtained when allowing the …-squared prediction error of real-time pooled forecasts is between 3% and 29% lower than that of the no-change forecast and its …