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In early 2020, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Representative Office for the Americas contacted a group of nine central banks that includes the members of the Consultative Council of the Americas (CCA) except the US Federal Reserve (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia,...
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This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters … the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation. …
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A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is … found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from …
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