Showing 1 - 10 of 101
We construct a multi-country affine term structure model that contains unspanned macroeconomic and foreign exchange risks. The canonical version of the model is derived and is shown to be easy to estimate. We show that it is important to impose restrictions (including global asset pricing, carry...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009493657
This paper proposes a novel regression-based approach to the estimation of Gaussian dynamic term structure models that avoids numerical optimization. This new estimator is an asymptotic least squares estimator defined by the no-arbitrage conditions upon which these models are built. We discuss...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010640466
market expectations about future inflation and real interest rates. We propose an approach to extracting such premiums and … inflation expectations for the two countries. To estimate the model, we apply a Kalman filter to monthly data on zero …-coupon bond yields for 2-year, 5-year and 10-year maturities as well as inflation. Our estimates suggest that Canadian inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808326
McCallum (1994a) proposes a monetary rule where policymakers have some tendency to resist rapid changes in exchange rates to explain the forward premium puzzle. We estimate this monetary policy reaction function within the framework of an affine term structure model to find that, contrary to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005808355
The author proposes an arbitrage-free model of the joint behaviour of interest and exchange rates whose exchange rate forecasts outperform those produced by a random-walk model, a vector autoregression on the forward premiums and the rate of depreciation, and the standard forward premium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162430
We study the joint dynamics of macroeconomic variables, bond yields, and the exchange rate in an empirical two-country New-Keynesian model complemented with a no-arbitrage term structure model. With Canadian and US data, we are able to study the impact of macroeconomic shocks from both countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162497
have benefited considerably from better macroeconomic policies, including lower inflation and lower debt. Therefore, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005536848
We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk … premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal … yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a no-arbitrage model where conditional expectations are latent but spanned …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010595731
Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010598589
Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005) show that (i) lagged forward rates improve the predictability of annual bond returns, adding to current forward rates, and that (ii) a Markovian model for monthly forward rates cannot generate the pattern of predictability in annual returns. These results stand as a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010762048